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Is sampling more worth what it costs?

Sampling a model several times and keeping the best or most common answer is the simplest way to spend more compute at inference time. Each extra sample adds its full output cost. This estimator puts the bill next to what you get for it: majority-vote accuracy, which needs no verifier, and coverage, the most a perfect verifier could get.

Background: test-time compute topic hub.

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1 · Model and task

Examples

2 · At N = 8

cost / query$0.17
cost / month$1,651
vs. one sample7.2×
majority vote87.8%
coverage (pass@N)99.9%
Majority vote needs no verifier: it is what self-consistency actually delivers. Coverage is the chance at least one of the N samples is right — the ceiling a perfect verifier could reach, and roughly what you get when answers can be checked mechanically (unit tests, a proof checker).

3 · Accuracy and cost against N

coverage (perfect verifier)majority vote
0%20%40%60%80%100%141664128samples Naccuracyone sample
Cost and accuracy by number of samples
Ncost / querycost / monthmajoritycoverage
1$0.02$23060.0%60.0%
2$0.04$43360.0%84.0%
4$0.08$83975.4%97.4%
8$0.17$1,65187.8%99.9%
16$0.33$3,27596.2%100.0%
32$0.65$6,52399.5%100.0%
64$1.30$13,019100.0%100.0%
128$2.60$26,011100.0%100.0%

A tie with the leading wrong answer counts as a miss. Samples are treated as independent; real samples from one model are correlated, so both curves are optimistic. A learned verifier sits between the two curves and can fall below majority vote at large N when it can be gamed — the verifier-budget research tool finds the safe N for a measured verifier. Prices: Claude Sonnet 5.5 list price as of Nov 09, 2026.

Questions

What is test-time compute?

Compute spent when the model answers rather than when it is trained: longer reasoning, several samples per question, or search over candidate answers. It trades cost and latency per query for accuracy.

What is self-consistency?

Sampling several answers to the same question and returning the most common one (majority vote). It helps when wrong answers are scattered and the right one recurs, and stops helping when one wrong answer is as popular as the right one.

What is pass@k or coverage?

The chance that at least one of k samples is correct. It is the ceiling for Best-of-N: you reach it only if you can tell which sample is right, for example by running unit tests or checking a proof.

Why is Best-of-N with a reward model not shown?

Its accuracy depends on how good and how gameable the reward model is, which a single number cannot capture. Our verifier-budget research tool models it from a verifier's measured exploitability and finds the N past which accuracy starts to fall.

Related

Leadership

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"The brain is the universe's only proof that general intelligence is possible. We treat it as the blueprint."

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Will Schulz

Will Schulz

Founder, NeuroGenesys • AW3 Technology