Everyone scores tool selection. Few calibrate it.
Agent evaluation and observability platforms already trace calls and score them with LLM judges. Use them. Selection reliability sits on top: it turns those logs into a calibrated error rate per selector and says why an agent got worse. It complements a tracing platform rather than replacing it.
Common approaches
| Approach | What it reports | What it leaves open |
|---|---|---|
LLM-judge tool-selection score e.g. Galileo Tool Selection Quality | Share of “yes” votes from repeated judge calls on whether the right tool was chosen. | No stated judge accuracy, calibration or confidence interval; no link between the score and a regression's cause. |
Canaries, regression sets and release gates e.g. Arize continual-learning guidance | Whether quality on a standing set drops after an update. | Does not say whether the drop is forgetting or mis-selection, so the fix (retrain vs. repair the selector) is a guess. |
Trajectory precision and recall e.g. Vertex AI agent evaluation | How closely the agent's tool calls match a reference trajectory. | Needs reference trajectories, and does not say whether a drop is forgetting or mis-selection. |
Tool-correctness metric e.g. DeepEval Tool Correctness | Whether the expected tools were called. | Checks which tools were called, not whether the tool would have succeeded if chosen, so capability and choice stay mixed. |
Based on each product's public documentation in November 2026. Products change; tell us if something here is out of date.
What selection reliability adds
- Calibrated selection error ε
- per router, retriever or judge, with 95% intervals, on the pool it actually faces
- Attribution
- forced accuracy vs. ε: a regression is forgetting, mis-selection, both, or not yet attributable
- Scaling
- ε against pool size, and the largest tool, skill or memory library that keeps accuracy on target
- Gate
- ALLOW / BLOCK / NEED MORE DATA for an update, usable in CI
- Judge exploitability
- how often a wrong answer outscores every right one, and the Best-of-N budget past which more samples hurt
- Selector repair
- standardised scores, a deferral margin and a verifier shortlist, judged on held-out decisions
Why not build it in-house?
You can, and the open selrel package is a start. The hard parts are the statistics (intervals at the small error rates and counts selection logs produce, judge-error correction, estimating a filter on data it was not fitted to) and neutrality: a vendor grading its own router or memory is not an independent number.
